Category: Policy Paper

As tensions between Israel and Hezbollah escalate, the specter of a full-scale war, with the potential to draw in the United States and Iran, demands the US’s immediate attention. The Biden-Harris Administration has tasked, in response, White House Senior Advisor Amos Hochstein with mediating efforts to de-escalate the conflict and bring stability to the Lebanon-Israel border.

As the US tries to avoid Lebanon becoming a theater of regional war, it is difficult to envisage a durable solution to the crisis without tackling both Lebanon’s governance vacuum and Iran’s entrenched influence. On the one hand, the evolution of Iran-backed Hezbollah into the country’s main powerbroker means that the decision to go to war does not rest with the government and calls for addressing more effectively Iran’s destabilizing role within Lebanon and in the region. On the other hand, Lebanon’s descent into a quasi-failed state following a financial collapse engineered by its governing elites, who have chronically mismanaged the country’s public finances, reinforces the need to prioritize improved governance and accountability. The prospect of a major military operation in Lebanon has become even more real with Israel’s determination to drive Hezbollah away from the border, in response to Hezbollah’s unfettered military activities in the border demarcation zone. Accordingly, a determined approach to dissuading parties from provocation together with a more comprehensive roadmap for lasting stability is essential to warding off a potentially catastrophic Hezbollah-Israel war and ensuring the survivability and recovery of the Lebanese state.

Prioritizing diplomacy to avert a full-scale war therefore offers an opportunity for the US and friends of Lebanon to confront these pressing issues, including the country’s erosion of sovereignty, its corrupt system of governance, and the collapse of its formal economy. This policy brief proposes a framework for robust diplomacy that would steer Lebanon away from the precipice of war and help establish a direct and sustainable path to stability and revival. This framework revolves around key elements, including stabilizing the Lebanon-Israel land border, addressing Lebanon’s leadership vacuum, revitalizing its economy, and enhancing its sovereignty.

ATFL convened a group of education leaders from public and private schools as well as experts from leading international organizations to discuss ongoing challenges and potential solutions. This policy paper reflects a group consensus on current challenges and steps that the Lebanese government and international actors can take to rebuild the education sector in Lebanon.

Lebanon is on a tragic trajectory, never before seen in its history. The next few months, with or without needed reforms, will shape its path for years to come. Lebanon’s failings can be attributed to endemic corruption by the political class and the “state within a state” impunity of Hezbollah. Lebanon’s leaders must take the necessary risks to reverse their country from falling into the abyss of an economic and political meltdown, but they will not be able to undertake this challenge alone.

The US must lead its friends in Europe and the Gulf to encourage political parties and leaders, who have previously failed to respond effectively to their people, to create a new framework for Lebanon to begin its recovery. The time is now ripe to build on the US-mediated maritime agreement by encouraging Lebanon to take steps on other achievable objectives that continue the momentum forward. The Lebanon Working Group proposes seven policy areas on which the US should focus its work with Lebanon.

This joint ATFL-Middle East Institute policy brief lays out key steps the United States can take to help Lebanon stop its slide toward full and irreversible failure and pave the way for reform and recovery.

This joint ATFL-Middle East Institute policy paper sets forth reasons why it is in the US interest, partnering with its international allies, to strongly encourage Lebanon to reform, rebuild, and prosper as an independent, stable, and functioning country.

Lebanon is moving rapidly toward total state failure. A full collapse would take weeks to unfold but decades to repair. It would likely lead to a resurgence of ISIS and al-Qaeda, a stream of Lebanese and Syrian refugees headed to Europe, and a further expansion of Hezbollah’s sway in the country. The US has the interest, and capacity, to lead an urgent international diplomatic initiative to pull Lebanon back from the brink.